IND121
FINAL
136MEM
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Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
9-11
121
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
13-7
136
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 112.7 – Memphis Grizzlies 123.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
257

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
18%
Won by 21+
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 257.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 250
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
20.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
18.6
Bennedict MathurinSF
16.1
Myles TurnerC
15.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.0
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
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