GS94FINAL
104SA
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability
FINAL
Golden State Warriors
12-3
94
VS
San Antonio Spurs
8-8
104
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
GS
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Will RichardOut
- Kristaps PorzingisOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
Spurs won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
198
Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
12%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 198.
O/U LINE 210
80% over20% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
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