MEM142
FINAL
131CHI
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
9-7
142
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
7-10
131
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 121.1 – Chicago Bulls 116.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
273

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 273.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 260
12% over ✓88% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
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