DET100
FINAL
111ORL
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Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
7-10
100
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
10-7
111
Model expected score: Detroit Pistons 106.5 – Orlando Magic 111.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Magic won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
211

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
35%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 211.

O/U LINE 210
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
5% over95% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
26.1
Jaden IveySG
17.6
Tobias HarrisPF
13.7
Jalen DurenC
11.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.SG
11.0
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
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