POR99FINAL
109OKC
Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability
FINAL
Portland Trail Blazers
6-8
99
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
11-4
109
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
POR
- Ja MorantOut
- Vit KrejciOut
- Shaedon SharpeOut
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 86%
ACTUAL RESULT
Thunder won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
208
Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
18%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
29%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 208.
O/U LINE 210
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anfernee SimonsSG
19.3
Shaedon SharpeSG
18.5
Deni AvdijaSF
16.9
Deandre AytonC
14.4
Jerami GrantPF
14.4
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
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