PHI111
FINAL
117MEM
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
2-11
111
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
8-7
117
Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 106.5 – Memphis Grizzlies 118.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 85%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
228

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
19%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
27%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 228.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
26.3
Joel EmbiidC
23.8
Quentin GrimesSG
21.9
Paul GeorgePF
16.2
Jared McCainSG
15.3
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
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