ORL109
FINAL
99PHX
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Orlando Magic vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
8-6
109
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
9-5
99
Model expected score: Orlando Magic 111.0 – Phoenix Suns 108.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Magic won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
208

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
57%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 208.

O/U LINE 210
69% over31% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
5% over95% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantPF
26.6
Devin BookerSG
25.6
Bradley BealSG
17.0
Tyus JonesPG
10.2
Nick RichardsC
9.5
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