UTAH117
FINAL
121SAC
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Utah Jazz vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
3-8
117
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
7-6
121
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 110.0 – Sacramento Kings 120.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Lauri MarkkanenOut
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Kings 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Kings won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
238

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 238.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 240
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
John CollinsPF
19.0
Lauri MarkkanenPF
19.0
Collin SextonSG
18.4
Keyonte GeorgePG
16.8
Walker KesslerC
11.1
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
De'Aaron FoxPG
25.0
Zach LaVineSG
22.4
DeMar DeRozanSF
22.2
Domantas SabonisC
19.1
Malik MonkSG
17.2
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