TOR123
FINAL
126BOS
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Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
2-11
123
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
10-3
126
Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 108.7 – Boston Celtics 124.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Trayce Jackson-DavisDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
  • Nate BittleOut
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 92%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
249

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
13%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
5%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
35%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 249.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over ✓64% under
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
RJ BarrettSF
21.1
Scottie BarnesPF
19.3
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.1
Jakob PoeltlC
14.5
Gradey DickSG
14.4
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
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