MIL114
FINAL
115CHA
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
4-8
114
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
4-7
115
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 111.9 – Charlotte Hornets 113.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroOut
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hornets won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
229

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
47%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 229.

O/U LINE 210
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 230
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
LaMelo BallPG
25.2
Brandon MillerSF
21.0
Miles BridgesPF
20.3
Mark WilliamsC
15.3
Grant WilliamsPF
10.4
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