DET120
FINAL
127MIL
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Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
5-7
120
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
3-8
127
Model expected score: Detroit Pistons 110.5 – Milwaukee Bucks 112.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Bucks won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
45%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 230
35% over ✓65% under
O/U LINE 240
18% over ✓82% under
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
26.1
Jaden IveySG
17.6
Tobias HarrisPF
13.7
Jalen DurenC
11.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.SG
11.0
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
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