LAC128
FINAL
134OKC
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LA Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
6-4
128
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
8-2
134
Model expected score: LA Clippers 105.0 – Oklahoma City Thunder 113.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
262

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
19%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 262.

O/U LINE 210
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 230
27% over ✓73% under
O/U LINE 240
13% over ✓87% under
O/U LINE 250
5% over ✓95% under
O/U LINE 260
1% over ✓99% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
James HardenPG
22.8
Norman PowellSG
21.8
Kawhi LeonardSF
21.5
Ivica ZubacC
16.8
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
10.1
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
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