WSH92
FINAL
107HOU
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Washington Wizards vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
2-6
92
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
6-4
107
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 107.9 – Houston Rockets 121.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 87%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
199

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
17%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
19%
Won by 21+
30%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 199.

O/U LINE 210
84% over16% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
69% over31% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jordan PooleSG
20.5
Kyle KuzmaPF
15.2
Alex SarrC
13.0
Malcolm BrogdonPG
12.7
Bilal CoulibalySF
12.3
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen GreenSG
21.0
Alperen ŞengünC
19.1
Amen ThompsonSF
14.1
Fred VanVleetPG
14.1
Dillon BrooksSF
14.0
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