GS127FINAL
116OKC
Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability
FINAL
Golden State Warriors
7-2
127
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
8-1
116
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
GS
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Will RichardOut
- Kristaps PorzingisOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
Warriors won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
243
Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
33%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
15%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 243.
O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 240
22% over ✓78% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
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