LAC107
FINAL
98SAC
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LA Clippers vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
4-4
107
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
5-3
98
Model expected score: LA Clippers 110.1 – Sacramento Kings 116.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Kings 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Clippers won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
205

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 205.

O/U LINE 210
80% over20% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
James HardenPG
22.8
Norman PowellSG
21.8
Kawhi LeonardSF
21.5
Ivica ZubacC
16.8
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
10.1
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
De'Aaron FoxPG
25.0
Zach LaVineSG
22.4
DeMar DeRozanSF
22.2
Domantas SabonisC
19.1
Malik MonkSG
17.2
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