GS117
FINAL
136CLE
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Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
7-1
117
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
9-0
136
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 115.2 – Cleveland Cavaliers 117.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
253

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
45%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 253.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 240
34% over ✓66% under
O/U LINE 250
18% over ✓82% under
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
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