OKC122
FINAL
124DEN
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
7-0
122
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
4-3
124
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 115.3 – Denver Nuggets 108.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
246

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
68%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 246.

O/U LINE 210
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 230
37% over ✓63% under
O/U LINE 240
20% over ✓80% under
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
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