GS127
FINAL
121HOU
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Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
4-1
127
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
3-2
121
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 113.8 – Houston Rockets 106.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 75%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
248

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
70%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 248.

O/U LINE 210
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 230
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 240
15% over ✓85% under
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen GreenSG
21.0
Alperen ŞengünC
19.1
Amen ThompsonSF
14.1
Fred VanVleetPG
14.1
Dillon BrooksSF
14.0
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