LAL131
FINAL
125TOR
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
3-2
131
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
1-4
125
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 120.4 – Toronto Raptors 118.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
256

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
54%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 256.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 250
28% over ✓72% under
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
RJ BarrettSF
21.1
Scottie BarnesPF
19.3
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.1
Jakob PoeltlC
14.5
Gradey DickSG
14.4
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