SA93FINAL
105OKC
San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability
FINAL
San Antonio Spurs
1-2
93
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
3-0
105
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
Thunder won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
198
Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
26%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
20%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 198.
O/U LINE 210
94% over6% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
84% over16% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
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