NY116FINAL
107MIA
New York Knicks vs Miami Heat — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Knicks
1-2
116
VS
Miami Heat
2-1
107
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
NY
- Josh HartDay-To-Day
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 52%
ACTUAL RESULT
Knicks won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
223
Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
52%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 223.
O/U LINE 210
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 230
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
26.0
Karl-Anthony TownsC
24.4
OG AnunobyPF
18.0
Mikal BridgesSF
17.6
Josh HartSG
13.6
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
Follow Us