DET105
FINAL
95PHI
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Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
0-4
105
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
1-2
95
Model expected score: Detroit Pistons 110.2 – Philadelphia 76ers 120.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pistons won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
200

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
23%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 200.

O/U LINE 210
86% over14% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
26.1
Jaden IveySG
17.6
Tobias HarrisPF
13.7
Jalen DurenC
11.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.SG
11.0
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
26.3
Joel EmbiidC
23.8
Quentin GrimesSG
21.9
Paul GeorgePF
16.2
Jared McCainSG
15.3
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