BOS132
FINAL
135IND
← back to predictions

Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
4-0
132
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
1-3
135
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 121.6 – Indiana Pacers 111.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 83%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pacers won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
267

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
76%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
7%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 267.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over ✓64% under
O/U LINE 250
19% over ✓81% under
O/U LINE 260
8% over ✓92% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
20.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
18.6
Bennedict MathurinSF
16.1
Myles TurnerC
15.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.0
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service