DEN144
FINAL
139BKN
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Denver Nuggets vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
1-2
144
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
1-2
139
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 112.8 – Brooklyn Nets 109.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
283

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 283.

O/U LINE 210
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 230
35% over ✓65% under
O/U LINE 240
18% over ✓82% under
O/U LINE 250
8% over ✓92% under
O/U LINE 260
3% over ✓97% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cam ThomasSG
24.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
18.8
Dennis SchröderPG
18.4
D'Angelo RussellPG
12.9
Keon JohnsonSG
10.6
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