CLE110
FINAL
104NY
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-0
110
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
1-1
104
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 109.0 – New York Knicks 113.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Cavaliers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
214

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 214.

O/U LINE 210
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
26.0
Karl-Anthony TownsC
24.4
OG AnunobyPF
18.0
Mikal BridgesSF
17.6
Josh HartSG
13.6
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