DET98FINAL
106MIA
Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat — Win Probability
FINAL
Detroit Pistons
0-3
98
VS
Miami Heat
1-1
106
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
DET
- Isaiah JoeOut
- Jalen DurenOut
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Heat won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
204
Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
17%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 204.
O/U LINE 210
83% over17% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
26.1
Jaden IveySG
17.6
Tobias HarrisPF
13.7
Jalen DurenC
11.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.SG
11.0
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
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