TOR101
FINAL
112MIN
← back to predictions

Toronto Raptors vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
1-1
101
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
1-1
112
Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 107.3 – Minnesota Timberwolves 118.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
23%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
RJ BarrettSF
21.1
Scottie BarnesPF
19.3
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.1
Jakob PoeltlC
14.5
Gradey DickSG
14.4
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service