MIA114
FINAL
106CHA
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Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
0-1
114
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
1-1
106
Model expected score: Miami Heat 113.5 – Charlotte Hornets 107.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
220

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
67%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 220.

O/U LINE 210
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
LaMelo BallPG
25.2
Brandon MillerSF
21.0
Miles BridgesPF
20.3
Mark WilliamsC
15.3
Grant WilliamsPF
10.4
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