ORL106
FINAL
121NY
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Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
15-7
106
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
12-8
121
Model expected score: Orlando Magic 110.0 – New York Knicks 112.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Knicks won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
227

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
45%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.

O/U LINE 210
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 230
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
26.0
Karl-Anthony TownsC
24.4
OG AnunobyPF
18.0
Mikal BridgesSF
17.6
Josh HartSG
13.6
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