OKC101FINAL
93LAL
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability
FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder
14-4
101
VS
Los Angeles Lakers
11-7
93
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
LAL
- Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
- Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
Thunder won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
194
Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
61%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 194.
O/U LINE 210
80% over20% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
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