MIL106FINAL
103MIA
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat — Win Probability
FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks
8-9
106
VS
Miami Heat
7-7
103
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
MIL
- Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
Bucks won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
209
Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
42%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 209.
O/U LINE 210
82% over18% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
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