MIA124
FINAL
111IND
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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
4-6
124
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
5-6
111
Model expected score: Miami Heat 112.7 – Indiana Pacers 115.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pacers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Heat won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
235

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 235.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
20.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
18.6
Bennedict MathurinSF
16.1
Myles TurnerC
15.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.0
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