MIN108
FINAL
122POR
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
6-4
108
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
3-8
122
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 116.3 – Portland Trail Blazers 107.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Blazers won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
230

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
74%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
8%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 230.

O/U LINE 210
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 230
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anfernee SimonsSG
19.3
Shaedon SharpeSG
18.5
Deni AvdijaSF
16.9
Deandre AytonC
14.4
Jerami GrantPF
14.4
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