CHA89
FINAL
114ORL
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Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
4-6
89
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
5-6
114
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 107.6 – Orlando Magic 113.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 68%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Magic won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
203

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 203.

O/U LINE 210
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
LaMelo BallPG
25.2
Brandon MillerSF
21.0
Miles BridgesPF
20.3
Mark WilliamsC
15.3
Grant WilliamsPF
10.4
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
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