NE71%
Sun 4:25 PM ET
29%MIA
← back to predictions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability

Sun 4:25 PM ET
New England Patriots logo
New England Patriots
4-3
71%
VS
Miami Dolphins logo
Miami Dolphins
0-5
29%
Market line: NE -7.5, total 44.5 · Model expected score: New England Patriots 26.0 – Miami Dolphins 18.5
Ad space
Ad space

Margin of Victory — Miami Dolphins (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Miami Dolphins, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
86% over14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over37% under
O/U LINE 44
52% over48% under
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under
🔒

Unlock Full Game Stats

Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free

Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

Ad space

Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

NE
Mack HollinsWR
82.2
Drake MayeQB
78.3
Efton Chism IIIWR
75.7
Caleb LomuT
75.1
Will CampbellT
72.8
MIA
Caleb DouglasWR
70.4
Ollie Gordon IIHB
70.0
Malik WashingtonWR
69.8
Aaron BrewerC
68.2
Will KacmarekTE
67.4

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

NEDrake Maye
VS
MIAMalik Willis
NE
78.3
11th / 35
Overall Grade
MIA
43.8
35th / 35
NE
91.5
3rd / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
MIA
57.2
33rd / 35
NE
41.4
21st / 35
Pressure Grade
MIA
32.2
30th / 35
NE
6.6%
1st / 35
Big Time Throw %
MIA
3.5%
20th / 35
NE
4.3%
25th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
MIA
5.8%
33rd / 35
NE
3.18s
31st / 35
Avg Time To Throw
MIA
3.29s
34th / 35
NE
10.1
4th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
MIA
10.4
2nd / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
NEMIA
+0.0313th/32
EPA / Play
-0.0927th/32
+0.1411th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.1428th/32
-0.1121st/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0211th/32
47.3%11th/32
Success Rate
39.6%29th/32
52.3%6th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
39.4%32nd/32
40.7%15th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
39.8%22nd/32
22.019th/32
Points Per Game
14.031st/32
Defense
NEMIA
-0.0315th/32
EPA / Play
+0.1128th/32
-0.0311th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.3231st/32
-0.0324th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.137th/32
46.0%22nd/32
Success Rate
49.3%28th/32
46.3%15th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
57.6%32nd/32
45.5%30th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
40.1%13th/32
18.84th/32
Points Per Game
26.424th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When New England Patriots have the ball
NE pressure allowed42.5%26th of 32
→
MIA pressure generated32.3%26th of 32
When Miami Dolphins have the ball
MIA pressure allowed45.0%32nd of 32
→
NE pressure generated38.3%13th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
NE
71.1
25th / 32
Overall
MIA
54.5
32nd / 32
NE
70.3
18th / 32
Offense
MIA
54.0
32nd / 32
NE
62.6
22nd / 32
Defense
MIA
58.2
29th / 32
NE
87.1
9th / 32
Special Teams
MIA
71.7
24th / 32
NE
68.9
17th / 32
Passing Offense
MIA
43.2
31st / 32
NE
73.1
15th / 32
Rushing Offense
MIA
60.9
28th / 32
NE
70.5
20th / 32
Receiving
MIA
60.2
30th / 32
NE
63.3
17th / 32
Offensive Line
MIA
56.1
31st / 32
NE
74.1
4th / 32
Pass Rush
MIA
64.9
28th / 32
NE
60.3
17th / 32
Coverage
MIA
48.1
27th / 32
NE
53.4
29th / 32
Run Defense
MIA
61.2
16th / 32
🔒

Unlock Matchups & Betting Edge

PFF player grades, lineup matchups, and betting-line insights for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service