MIN41%
Sun 1:00 PM ET
59%DET
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Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings logo
Minnesota Vikings
5-0
41%
VS
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit Lions
3-2
59%
Market line: DET -3.0, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Minnesota Vikings 22.3 – Detroit Lions 25.2
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Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Detroit Lions, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
41%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
91% over9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over29% under
O/U LINE 44
61% over39% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 48
48% over52% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

MIN
Justin JeffersonWR
85.3
T.J. HockensonTE
77.5
Kyler MurrayQB
72.7
Josh OliverTE
66.7
Christian DarrisawT
66.2
DET
Penei SewellT
90.9
Jahmyr GibbsHB
88.3
Christian MahoganyG
86.4
Jared GoffQB
86.3
Sam LaPortaTE
80.6

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

MINKyler Murray
VS
DETJared Goff
MIN
72.7
16th / 35
Overall Grade
DET
86.3
4th / 35
MIN
83.5
17th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
DET
88.1
10th / 35
MIN
50.1
14th / 35
Pressure Grade
DET
71.6
2nd / 35
MIN
2.8%
27th / 35
Big Time Throw %
DET
4.6%
9th / 35
MIN
0.8%
2nd / 35
Turnover Worthy %
DET
0.5%
1st / 35
MIN
3.25s
33rd / 35
Avg Time To Throw
DET
2.76s
13th / 35
MIN
7.0
29th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
DET
8.8
12th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
MINDET
-0.0825th/32
EPA / Play
+0.193rd/32
-0.0423rd/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.293rd/32
-0.1324th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
+0.036th/32
39.7%28th/32
Success Rate
51.8%2nd/32
40.9%28th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
53.6%3rd/32
38.2%24th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
48.8%2nd/32
21.821st/32
Points Per Game
32.81st/32
Defense
MINDET
-0.181st/32
EPA / Play
+0.1631st/32
-0.191st/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.2428th/32
-0.155th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0126th/32
35.9%1st/32
Success Rate
49.6%31st/32
36.5%1st/32
Success Rate (Passing)
54.5%30th/32
35.0%3rd/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
39.1%7th/32
12.81st/32
Points Per Game
29.629th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Minnesota Vikings have the ball
MIN pressure allowed36.3%17th of 32
→
DET pressure generated36.9%17th of 32
When Detroit Lions have the ball
DET pressure allowed33.7%12th of 32
→
MIN pressure generated46.4%1st of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
MIN
73.1
19th / 32
Overall
DET
83.3
1st / 32
MIN
62.9
28th / 32
Offense
DET
79.2
2nd / 32
MIN
70.7
9th / 32
Defense
DET
71.9
6th / 32
MIN
90.8
4th / 32
Special Teams
DET
75.7
19th / 32
MIN
57.2
23rd / 32
Passing Offense
DET
79.0
6th / 32
MIN
63.1
27th / 32
Rushing Offense
DET
76.0
13th / 32
MIN
68.1
22nd / 32
Receiving
DET
76.8
6th / 32
MIN
60.5
25th / 32
Offensive Line
DET
71.0
2nd / 32
MIN
69.8
15th / 32
Pass Rush
DET
83.5
1st / 32
MIN
58.1
19th / 32
Coverage
DET
52.1
24th / 32
MIN
76.2
2nd / 32
Run Defense
DET
72.6
3rd / 32
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