LAC30%
Sun 4:05 PM ET
70%LAR
← back to predictions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Los Angeles Rams — Win Probability

Sun 4:05 PM ET
Los Angeles Chargers logo
Los Angeles Chargers
0-6
30%
VS
Los Angeles Rams logo
Los Angeles Rams
2-4
70%
Market line: LAR -7.0, total 46.5 · Model expected score: Los Angeles Chargers 19.8 – Los Angeles Rams 26.8
Ad space
Ad space

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Rams (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Los Angeles Rams, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
30%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
89% over11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over31% under
O/U LINE 44
58% over42% under
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 48
46% over54% under
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under
🔒

Unlock Full Game Stats

Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free

Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

Ad space

Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

LAC
Ladd McConkeyWR
74.4
Rashawn SlaterT
73.7
Joe AltT
71.6
Travis BurkeT
70.5
Tre HarrisWR
64.9
LAR
Puka NacuaWR
86.6
Kyren WilliamsHB
77.9
Alaric JacksonT
76.4
Davante AdamsWR
75.9
Coleman SheltonC
73.0

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

LACJustin Herbert
VS
LARMatthew Stafford
LAC
44.5
34th / 35
Overall Grade
LAR
64.9
23rd / 35
LAC
56.9
34th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
LAR
78.6
21st / 35
LAC
29.1
32nd / 35
Pressure Grade
LAR
36.8
26th / 35
LAC
4.1%
14th / 35
Big Time Throw %
LAR
3.4%
21st / 35
LAC
5.8%
33rd / 35
Turnover Worthy %
LAR
4.2%
22nd / 35
LAC
2.96s
18th / 35
Avg Time To Throw
LAR
2.64s
6th / 35
LAC
8.6
14th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
LAR
8.5
15th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
LACLAR
-0.1932nd/32
EPA / Play
+0.0710th/32
-0.2132nd/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.1113th/32
-0.1728th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0212th/32
40.4%27th/32
Success Rate
48.0%9th/32
41.1%27th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
49.8%13th/32
39.5%23rd/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
44.7%10th/32
16.830th/32
Points Per Game
23.813th/32
Defense
LACLAR
-0.0316th/32
EPA / Play
-0.0314th/32
+0.0117th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.0014th/32
-0.0615th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0617th/32
43.6%11th/32
Success Rate
46.2%23rd/32
47.1%18th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
47.5%20th/32
39.9%12th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
44.5%25th/32
25.822nd/32
Points Per Game
24.020th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Los Angeles Chargers have the ball
LAC pressure allowed44.6%31st of 32
→
LAR pressure generated38.5%11th of 32
When Los Angeles Rams have the ball
LAR pressure allowed31.6%5th of 32
→
LAC pressure generated37.0%15th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
LAC
64.4
29th / 32
Overall
LAR
77.5
9th / 32
LAC
56.4
31st / 32
Offense
LAR
74.5
9th / 32
LAC
73.1
3rd / 32
Defense
LAR
66.1
17th / 32
LAC
78.5
17th / 32
Special Teams
LAR
77.5
18th / 32
LAC
42.2
32nd / 32
Passing Offense
LAR
64.3
20th / 32
LAC
71.8
17th / 32
Rushing Offense
LAR
81.4
6th / 32
LAC
58.8
32nd / 32
Receiving
LAR
71.8
17th / 32
LAC
57.0
30th / 32
Offensive Line
LAR
71.3
1st / 32
LAC
68.8
17th / 32
Pass Rush
LAR
70.8
12th / 32
LAC
74.0
6th / 32
Coverage
LAR
69.9
9th / 32
LAC
70.1
5th / 32
Run Defense
LAR
55.5
27th / 32
🔒

Unlock Matchups & Betting Edge

PFF player grades, lineup matchups, and betting-line insights for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free