KC55%
Sun 4:25 PM ET
45%DEN
← back to predictions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos — Win Probability

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs logo
Kansas City Chiefs
5-0
55%
VS
Denver Broncos logo
Denver Broncos
4-2
45%
Market line: KC -1.5, total 42.5 · Model expected score: Kansas City Chiefs 22.0 – Denver Broncos 20.5
Ad space
Ad space

Margin of Victory — Denver Broncos (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Denver Broncos, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
55%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
82% over18% under
O/U LINE 40
57% over43% under
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 44
46% over54% under
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under
🔒

Unlock Full Game Stats

Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free

Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

Ad space

Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

KC
Kenneth Walker IIIHB
90.8
Patrick MahomesQB
85.0
Travis KelceTE
82.1
Trey SmithG
80.4
Tyquan ThorntonWR
71.4
DEN
Quinn MeinerzG
87.0
Garett BollesT
81.6
Luke WattenbergC
68.0
Jaylen WaddleWR
65.7
Pat BryantWR
64.8

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

KCPatrick Mahomes
VS
DENBo Nix
KC
85.0
7th / 35
Overall Grade
DEN
46.6
33rd / 35
KC
88.8
8th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
DEN
69.3
28th / 35
KC
62.8
5th / 35
Pressure Grade
DEN
28.2
34th / 35
KC
6.0%
3rd / 35
Big Time Throw %
DEN
2.4%
29th / 35
KC
1.6%
6th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
DEN
5.0%
29th / 35
KC
2.65s
7th / 35
Avg Time To Throw
DEN
2.97s
20th / 35
KC
7.0
29th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
DEN
6.3
33rd / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
KCDEN
+0.145th/32
EPA / Play
-0.0926th/32
+0.188th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.1226th/32
+0.081st/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0414th/32
49.2%7th/32
Success Rate
38.1%32nd/32
52.6%4th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
39.4%31st/32
44.8%8th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
36.2%28th/32
29.55th/32
Points Per Game
19.426th/32
Defense
KCDEN
-0.113rd/32
EPA / Play
-0.0411th/32
-0.123rd/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.047th/32
-0.0910th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0420th/32
39.3%2nd/32
Success Rate
42.8%7th/32
42.4%3rd/32
Success Rate (Passing)
44.8%10th/32
33.9%2nd/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
39.6%10th/32
19.37th/32
Points Per Game
22.213th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Kansas City Chiefs have the ball
KC pressure allowed33.1%10th of 32
→
DEN pressure generated41.6%5th of 32
When Denver Broncos have the ball
DEN pressure allowed38.9%24th of 32
→
KC pressure generated38.4%12th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
KC
80.6
4th / 32
Overall
DEN
71.2
24th / 32
KC
78.1
6th / 32
Offense
DEN
64.1
25th / 32
KC
67.3
14th / 32
Defense
DEN
69.9
11th / 32
KC
66.6
27th / 32
Special Teams
DEN
84.6
13th / 32
KC
78.1
7th / 32
Passing Offense
DEN
54.0
26th / 32
KC
85.3
1st / 32
Rushing Offense
DEN
67.4
24th / 32
KC
72.3
15th / 32
Receiving
DEN
67.0
23rd / 32
KC
69.7
7th / 32
Offensive Line
DEN
61.1
23rd / 32
KC
71.6
10th / 32
Pass Rush
DEN
82.8
2nd / 32
KC
62.7
16th / 32
Coverage
DEN
66.5
12th / 32
KC
65.2
12th / 32
Run Defense
DEN
55.7
26th / 32
🔒

Unlock Matchups & Betting Edge

PFF player grades, lineup matchups, and betting-line insights for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service