IND29%
Sun 1:00 PM ET
71%JAX
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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts logo
Indianapolis Colts
2-4
29%
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars logo
Jacksonville Jaguars
4-2
71%
Market line: JAX -7.3, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Indianapolis Colts 20.1 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27.4
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Margin of Victory — Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Jacksonville Jaguars, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
91% over9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 48
49% over51% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

IND
Quenton NelsonG
89.2
Matt GoncalvesG
75.8
Bernhard RaimannT
74.5
Tyler WarrenTE
73.1
Josh DownsWR
72.0
JAX
Bhayshul TutenHB
90.6
Parker WashingtonWR
81.6
Jakobi MeyersWR
71.9
Trevor LawrenceQB
71.5
Josh CameronWR
71.1

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

INDDaniel Jones
VS
JAXTrevor Lawrence
IND
51.4
31st / 35
Overall Grade
JAX
71.5
17th / 35
IND
60.6
31st / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
JAX
88.0
11th / 35
IND
36.1
27th / 35
Pressure Grade
JAX
40.2
22nd / 35
IND
2.7%
28th / 35
Big Time Throw %
JAX
4.1%
14th / 35
IND
6.0%
35th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
JAX
5.5%
31st / 35
IND
2.77s
14th / 35
Avg Time To Throw
JAX
2.69s
8th / 35
IND
8.4
17th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
JAX
9.0
10th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
INDJAX
-0.0522nd/32
EPA / Play
+0.154th/32
-0.1227th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.234th/32
+0.073rd/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
+0.055th/32
43.0%20th/32
Success Rate
49.9%6th/32
42.3%25th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
51.2%10th/32
44.0%12th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
48.1%3rd/32
24.811th/32
Points Per Game
24.612th/32
Defense
INDJAX
+0.0724th/32
EPA / Play
-0.059th/32
+0.1223rd/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.0016th/32
-0.0029th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.146th/32
45.3%21st/32
Success Rate
44.3%13th/32
46.7%17th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
48.7%23rd/32
43.4%23rd/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
35.5%5th/32
27.627th/32
Points Per Game
14.02nd/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Indianapolis Colts have the ball
IND pressure allowed36.9%19th of 32
→
JAX pressure generated39.0%9th of 32
When Jacksonville Jaguars have the ball
JAX pressure allowed31.0%3rd of 32
→
IND pressure generated28.6%29th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
IND
72.5
21st / 32
Overall
JAX
77.1
10th / 32
IND
69.3
21st / 32
Offense
JAX
73.1
11th / 32
IND
60.0
27th / 32
Defense
JAX
64.5
19th / 32
IND
84.2
14th / 32
Special Teams
JAX
79.0
16th / 32
IND
48.6
30th / 32
Passing Offense
JAX
72.3
12th / 32
IND
68.1
21st / 32
Rushing Offense
JAX
83.6
3rd / 32
IND
71.0
19th / 32
Receiving
JAX
78.1
2nd / 32
IND
71.0
2nd / 32
Offensive Line
JAX
57.1
29th / 32
IND
69.9
14th / 32
Pass Rush
JAX
65.6
26th / 32
IND
46.3
28th / 32
Coverage
JAX
56.5
20th / 32
IND
60.3
20th / 32
Run Defense
JAX
68.0
8th / 32
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