CAR41%
Thu 8:15 PM ET
59%GB
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Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability

Thu 8:15 PM ET
Carolina Panthers logo
Carolina Panthers
3-2
41%
VS
Green Bay Packers logo
Green Bay Packers
4-2
59%
Market line: GB -3.0, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Carolina Panthers 22.2 – Green Bay Packers 25.3
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Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Green Bay Packers, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
41%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
90% over10% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 48
49% over51% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under

Projected Margin Range — Green Bay Packers (Home)

Negative means Green Bay Packers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.

P05: -19
Median: +3
P95: +25

Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

CAR
Bryce YoungQB
85.2
Chuba HubbardHB
82.9
Tetairoa McMillanWR
80.4
Damien LewisG
78.1
Jalen CokerWR
75.0
GB
Matthew GoldenWR
76.3
Christian WatsonWR
74.2
Jordan LoveQB
74.0
Mark RedmanTE
66.3
Sean RhyanC
59.2

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

CARBryce Young
VS
GBJordan Love
CAR
85.2
6th / 35
Overall Grade
GB
74.0
15th / 35
CAR
91.4
4th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
GB
90.4
6th / 35
CAR
62.3
6th / 35
Pressure Grade
GB
38.7
25th / 35
CAR
4.2%
11th / 35
Big Time Throw %
GB
6.2%
2nd / 35
CAR
0.9%
3rd / 35
Turnover Worthy %
GB
4.2%
22nd / 35
CAR
2.85s
17th / 35
Avg Time To Throw
GB
2.48s
1st / 35
CAR
10.0
5th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
GB
9.5
6th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
CARGB
+0.136th/32
EPA / Play
-0.0219th/32
+0.196th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.1015th/32
+0.017th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.2532nd/32
45.0%15th/32
Success Rate
40.9%23rd/32
45.0%19th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
44.0%21st/32
45.1%6th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
34.7%29th/32
30.34th/32
Points Per Game
20.824th/32
Defense
CARGB
-0.0118th/32
EPA / Play
-0.066th/32
+0.0015th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.114th/32
-0.0225th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
+0.0130th/32
43.2%8th/32
Success Rate
45.0%18th/32
45.2%11th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
44.5%8th/32
39.3%9th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
45.8%31st/32
27.326th/32
Points Per Game
22.414th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Carolina Panthers have the ball
CAR pressure allowed44.5%30th of 32
→
GB pressure generated35.1%21st of 32
When Green Bay Packers have the ball
GB pressure allowed36.6%18th of 32
→
CAR pressure generated39.4%8th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
CAR
80.8
3rd / 32
Overall
GB
71.3
23rd / 32
CAR
78.6
4th / 32
Offense
GB
63.2
27th / 32
CAR
63.9
20th / 32
Defense
GB
71.7
7th / 32
CAR
87.1
9th / 32
Special Teams
GB
75.5
22nd / 32
CAR
81.7
4th / 32
Passing Offense
GB
73.8
9th / 32
CAR
78.6
10th / 32
Rushing Offense
GB
59.7
30th / 32
CAR
77.5
3rd / 32
Receiving
GB
67.0
23rd / 32
CAR
66.2
11th / 32
Offensive Line
GB
50.0
32nd / 32
CAR
71.8
9th / 32
Pass Rush
GB
68.3
19th / 32
CAR
64.2
15th / 32
Coverage
GB
76.8
5th / 32
CAR
52.2
30th / 32
Run Defense
GB
68.2
7th / 32
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