BAL41%
Sun 1:00 PM ET
59%BUF
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Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens logo
Baltimore Ravens
4-2
41%
VS
Buffalo Bills logo
Buffalo Bills
5-1
59%
Market line: BUF -3.0, total 51.5 · Model expected score: Baltimore Ravens 24.3 – Buffalo Bills 27.2
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Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Buffalo Bills, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
41%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
95% over5% under
O/U LINE 40
81% over19% under
O/U LINE 44
71% over29% under
O/U LINE 48
60% over40% under
O/U LINE 51.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 52
49% over51% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

BAL
Lamar JacksonQB
91.4
Zay FlowersWR
87.2
Derrick HenryHB
75.2
Vega IoaneG
69.6
Rashod BatemanWR
68.9
BUF
Josh AllenQB
81.5
Dion DawkinsT
80.4
Keon ColemanWR
76.3
DJ MooreWR
74.6
Dalton KincaidTE
72.8

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

BALTyler Huntley
VS
BUFJosh Allen
BAL
68.0
19th / 35
Overall Grade
BUF
81.5
9th / 35
BAL
68.2
29th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
BUF
86.7
12th / 35
BAL
64.5
4th / 35
Pressure Grade
BUF
45.2
18th / 35
BAL
1.3%
33rd / 35
Big Time Throw %
BUF
3.7%
19th / 35
BAL
2.2%
11th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
BUF
4.9%
28th / 35
BAL
3.01s
22nd / 35
Avg Time To Throw
BUF
3.15s
29th / 35
BAL
6.1
34th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
BUF
9.0
10th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
BALBUF
+0.107th/32
EPA / Play
+0.211st/32
+0.215th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.342nd/32
-0.0313th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
+0.054th/32
49.9%5th/32
Success Rate
50.1%4th/32
54.0%2nd/32
Success Rate (Passing)
51.0%11th/32
44.9%7th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
49.1%1st/32
29.26th/32
Points Per Game
32.81st/32
Defense
BALBUF
-0.0313th/32
EPA / Play
+0.1430th/32
-0.039th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.2429th/32
-0.0322nd/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0323rd/32
43.2%9th/32
Success Rate
49.4%29th/32
43.5%5th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
52.7%29th/32
42.8%20th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
43.5%24th/32
23.819th/32
Points Per Game
28.228th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Baltimore Ravens have the ball
BAL pressure allowed38.5%23rd of 32
→
BUF pressure generated35.6%20th of 32
When Buffalo Bills have the ball
BUF pressure allowed39.3%25th of 32
→
BAL pressure generated36.6%19th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
BAL
82.2
2nd / 32
Overall
BUF
75.4
14th / 32
BAL
74.4
10th / 32
Offense
BUF
75.2
8th / 32
BAL
73.7
2nd / 32
Defense
BUF
57.7
30th / 32
BAL
90.1
6th / 32
Special Teams
BUF
92.4
1st / 32
BAL
79.9
5th / 32
Passing Offense
BUF
73.1
10th / 32
BAL
77.4
11th / 32
Rushing Offense
BUF
79.3
8th / 32
BAL
76.8
6th / 32
Receiving
BUF
73.9
12th / 32
BAL
60.8
24th / 32
Offensive Line
BUF
63.4
16th / 32
BAL
65.4
27th / 32
Pass Rush
BUF
72.9
8th / 32
BAL
80.9
3rd / 32
Coverage
BUF
43.6
29th / 32
BAL
65.5
10th / 32
Run Defense
BUF
57.1
24th / 32
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