ATL49%
Sun 1:00 PM ET
51%TB
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Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons logo
Atlanta Falcons
2-4
49%
VS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1-5
51%
Market line: TB -0.5, total 44.5 · Model expected score: Atlanta Falcons 22.0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.5
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Margin of Victory — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
49%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
86% over14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over37% under
O/U LINE 44
52% over48% under
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

ATL
Bijan RobinsonHB
90.2
Drake LondonWR
89.7
Chris LindstromG
83.4
Brian RobinsonHB
74.6
Matthew BergeronG
69.3
TB
Tristan WirfsT
70.4
Luke GoedekeT
69.9
Bucky IrvingHB
69.0
Chris GodwinWR
65.1
Emeka EgbukaWR
62.6

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

ATLMichael Penix Jr.
VS
TBJalon Daniels
ATL
64.8
24th / 35
Overall Grade
TB
48.0
32nd / 35
ATL
89.1
7th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
TB
60.6
31st / 35
ATL
28.5
33rd / 35
Pressure Grade
TB
25.8
35th / 35
ATL
5.0%
6th / 35
Big Time Throw %
TB
1.0%
35th / 35
ATL
5.3%
30th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
TB
3.8%
20th / 35
ATL
2.57s
4th / 35
Avg Time To Throw
TB
3.09s
25th / 35
ATL
8.3
18th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
TB
6.5
32nd / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
ATLTB
-0.0421st/32
EPA / Play
-0.1229th/32
-0.1529th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.1931st/32
+0.082nd/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
+0.009th/32
44.7%17th/32
Success Rate
40.6%26th/32
43.5%24th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
40.1%30th/32
46.2%5th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
41.5%14th/32
23.813th/32
Points Per Game
20.025th/32
Defense
ATLTB
-0.0119th/32
EPA / Play
-0.084th/32
+0.0319th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.0212th/32
-0.0912th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.182nd/32
43.3%10th/32
Success Rate
42.6%6th/32
44.6%9th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
47.7%21st/32
40.6%14th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
33.1%1st/32
24.421st/32
Points Per Game
22.414th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Atlanta Falcons have the ball
ATL pressure allowed31.4%4th of 32
→
TB pressure generated27.7%31st of 32
When Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the ball
TB pressure allowed32.6%8th of 32
→
ATL pressure generated44.0%3rd of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
ATL
80.0
6th / 32
Overall
TB
67.6
28th / 32
ATL
71.9
15th / 32
Offense
TB
57.9
30th / 32
ATL
71.7
7th / 32
Defense
TB
72.2
5th / 32
ATL
90.3
5th / 32
Special Teams
TB
80.8
15th / 32
ATL
53.6
28th / 32
Passing Offense
TB
50.5
29th / 32
ATL
83.1
4th / 32
Rushing Offense
TB
68.0
22nd / 32
ATL
76.7
8th / 32
Receiving
TB
60.4
29th / 32
ATL
62.8
19th / 32
Offensive Line
TB
58.9
27th / 32
ATL
80.2
3rd / 32
Pass Rush
TB
70.5
13th / 32
ATL
68.7
11th / 32
Coverage
TB
69.5
10th / 32
ATL
61.2
16th / 32
Run Defense
TB
71.5
4th / 32
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