ARI32%
Sun 1:00 PM ET
68%DAL
← back to predictions

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys — Win Probability

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Arizona Cardinals logo
Arizona Cardinals
2-4
32%
VS
Dallas Cowboys logo
Dallas Cowboys
2-4
68%
Market line: DAL -6.3, total 51.5 · Model expected score: Arizona Cardinals 22.6 – Dallas Cowboys 28.9
Ad space
Ad space

Margin of Victory — Dallas Cowboys (Home)

How often each outcome happened for Dallas Cowboys, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
32%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
95% over5% under
O/U LINE 40
81% over19% under
O/U LINE 44
71% over29% under
O/U LINE 48
60% over40% under
O/U LINE 51.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 52
48% over52% under
🔒

Unlock Full Game Stats

Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free

Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

Ad space

Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

ARI
Elijah HigginsTE
86.2
Jacoby BrissettQB
80.3
Paris Johnson Jr.T
77.6
Michael WilsonWR
73.9
Jon Gaines IIG
71.9
DAL
CeeDee LambWR
88.6
Dak PrescottQB
83.2
Tyler BookerG
76.0
Tyler SmithG
75.6
George PickensWR
74.6

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

ARIJacoby Brissett
VS
DALDak Prescott
ARI
80.3
10th / 35
Overall Grade
DAL
83.2
8th / 35
ARI
83.6
16th / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
DAL
92.4
2nd / 35
ARI
45.8
17th / 35
Pressure Grade
DAL
51.0
12th / 35
ARI
2.0%
30th / 35
Big Time Throw %
DAL
3.4%
21st / 35
ARI
2.3%
12th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
DAL
2.4%
13th / 35
ARI
2.52s
2nd / 35
Avg Time To Throw
DAL
2.75s
12th / 35
ARI
7.4
27th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
DAL
7.8
22nd / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
ARIDAL
-0.0216th/32
EPA / Play
+0.098th/32
-0.0021st/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.1212th/32
-0.0415th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
+0.018th/32
49.0%8th/32
Success Rate
50.9%3rd/32
51.6%8th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
52.5%5th/32
44.7%9th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
47.3%4th/32
21.623rd/32
Points Per Game
27.67th/32
Defense
ARIDAL
+0.1129th/32
EPA / Play
+0.1832nd/32
+0.2830th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.3732nd/32
-0.109th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0419th/32
47.4%26th/32
Success Rate
49.5%30th/32
49.2%24th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
56.5%31st/32
45.2%28th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
40.9%15th/32
32.432nd/32
Points Per Game
27.225th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Arizona Cardinals have the ball
ARI pressure allowed25.8%1st of 32
→
DAL pressure generated34.3%22nd of 32
When Dallas Cowboys have the ball
DAL pressure allowed34.3%14th of 32
→
ARI pressure generated30.4%27th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
ARI
76.6
11th / 32
Overall
DAL
73.0
20th / 32
ARI
80.5
1st / 32
Offense
DAL
78.4
5th / 32
ARI
51.4
32nd / 32
Defense
DAL
51.8
31st / 32
ARI
91.2
3rd / 32
Special Teams
DAL
66.3
28th / 32
ARI
85.5
1st / 32
Passing Offense
DAL
85.3
2nd / 32
ARI
84.0
2nd / 32
Rushing Offense
DAL
68.3
20th / 32
ARI
77.5
3rd / 32
Receiving
DAL
76.6
9th / 32
ARI
65.7
13th / 32
Offensive Line
DAL
64.1
15th / 32
ARI
68.2
20th / 32
Pass Rush
DAL
67.9
21st / 32
ARI
39.0
32nd / 32
Coverage
DAL
42.8
30th / 32
ARI
51.8
31st / 32
Run Defense
DAL
50.8
32nd / 32
🔒

Unlock Matchups & Betting Edge

PFF player grades, lineup matchups, and betting-line insights for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service