NE24
FINAL
30CHI
← back to predictions

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears — Win Probability

FINAL
New England Patriots logo
New England Patriots
4-2
24
VS
Chicago Bears logo
Chicago Bears
4-2
30
Market line: CHI -3.0, total 50.5 · Model expected score: New England Patriots 23.7 – Chicago Bears 26.8
Ad space

Injury Report

The latest official designations and practice participation for both teams.

NE
  • QBDrake MayeFull
  • GAlijah Vera-TuckerOut
  • CBen BrownOut
  • CBCarlton Davis IIIOut
  • CBChanning CanadaOut
  • CBKaron PruntyOut
  • LBChristian EllissQuestionable
  • SCraig WoodsonQuestionable
  • SKevin ByardQuestionable
  • TMorgan MosesQuestionable
  • WRA.J. BrownFull
  • LBDre'Mont JonesFull
  • TMarcus BryantFull
  • RBTreVeyon HendersonFull
  • TWill CampbellFull
CHI
  • LBJack SanbornOut
  • RBKyle MonangaiOut
  • LBT.J. EdwardsDoubtful
  • CBTyrique StevensonQuestionable
  • GJonah JacksonFull
  • LBKeyshaun ElliottFull

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bears 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Chicago Bears won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
54
Ad space

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bears (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
41%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 54.

O/U LINE 30
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 40
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 44
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 48
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 50.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
46% over ✓54% under
🔒

Unlock Full Game Stats

Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free

Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

Ad space

Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

NE
Mack HollinsWR
82.2
Drake MayeQB
78.3
Efton Chism IIIWR
75.7
Caleb LomuT
75.1
Will CampbellT
72.8
CHI
Jonah JacksonG
83.7
Darnell WrightT
83.1
Kyle MonangaiHB
74.7
Luther Burden IIIWR
73.7
Kalif RaymondWR
72.6

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

NEDrake Maye
VS
CHICaleb Williams
NE
78.3
11th / 35
Overall Grade
CHI
65.2
22nd / 35
NE
91.5
3rd / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
CHI
78.3
22nd / 35
NE
41.4
21st / 35
Pressure Grade
CHI
48.1
16th / 35
NE
6.6%
1st / 35
Big Time Throw %
CHI
3.0%
25th / 35
NE
4.3%
25th / 35
Turnover Worthy %
CHI
2.5%
17th / 35
NE
3.18s
31st / 35
Avg Time To Throw
CHI
3.50s
35th / 35
NE
10.1
4th / 35
Avg Depth of Target
CHI
5.9
35th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
NECHI
+0.0313th/32
EPA / Play
+0.0314th/32
+0.1411th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.1014th/32
-0.1121st/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0618th/32
47.3%11th/32
Success Rate
46.7%12th/32
52.3%6th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
51.7%7th/32
40.7%15th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
40.7%16th/32
22.019th/32
Points Per Game
23.813th/32
Defense
NECHI
-0.0315th/32
EPA / Play
-0.0312th/32
-0.0311th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
-0.056th/32
-0.0324th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.0128th/32
46.0%22nd/32
Success Rate
42.2%4th/32
46.3%15th/32
Success Rate (Passing)
40.7%2nd/32
45.5%30th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
44.6%26th/32
18.84th/32
Points Per Game
19.25th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When New England Patriots have the ball
NE pressure allowed42.5%26th of 32
→
CHI pressure generated39.7%7th of 32
When Chicago Bears have the ball
CHI pressure allowed36.9%19th of 32
→
NE pressure generated38.3%13th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
NE
71.1
25th / 32
Overall
CHI
75.1
15th / 32
NE
70.3
18th / 32
Offense
CHI
72.2
14th / 32
NE
62.6
22nd / 32
Defense
CHI
66.3
16th / 32
NE
87.1
9th / 32
Special Teams
CHI
70.0
26th / 32
NE
68.9
17th / 32
Passing Offense
CHI
61.1
21st / 32
NE
73.1
15th / 32
Rushing Offense
CHI
67.1
25th / 32
NE
70.5
20th / 32
Receiving
CHI
74.8
11th / 32
NE
63.3
17th / 32
Offensive Line
CHI
69.8
6th / 32
NE
74.1
4th / 32
Pass Rush
CHI
71.5
11th / 32
NE
60.3
17th / 32
Coverage
CHI
65.9
13th / 32
NE
53.4
29th / 32
Run Defense
CHI
53.7
28th / 32
🔒

Unlock Matchups & Betting Edge

PFF player grades, lineup matchups, and betting-line insights for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.

Sign Up Free
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service