MIA37%
Sun 1:00 PM ET
63%NYJ
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Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets — Win Probability

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Miami Dolphins logo
Miami Dolphins
0-5
37%
VS
New York Jets logo
New York Jets
2-4
63%
Market line: NYJ -4.5, total 39.5 · Model expected score: Miami Dolphins 17.5 – New York Jets 22.0
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Injury Report

The latest official designations and practice participation for both teams.

MIA
  • QBMalik WillisFull
  • CBReese TaylorDNP
  • WRCaleb DouglasLimited
  • RBJaylen WrightLimited
  • SKyle LouisLimited
  • DERob Beal Jr.Limited
  • LSTucker AddingtonLimited
  • TEWill KacmarekLimited
  • LBJackson WoodardFull
  • GJonah SavaiinaeaFull
  • LBJordyn BrooksFull
  • CBJulius BrentsFull
NYJ
  • RBBreece HallDNP
  • LBFrancisco MauigoaDNP
  • DEJoseph OssaiDNP
  • RBKene NwangwuDNP
  • WRAdonai MitchellLimited
  • GDylan ParhamLimited
  • DTT'Vondre SweatLimited
  • DEWill McDonald IVLimited
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Margin of Victory — New York Jets (Home)

How often each outcome happened for New York Jets, across every simulated version of this game.

Lost / Tied
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line.

O/U LINE 30
76% over24% under
O/U LINE 39.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under
O/U LINE 40
48% over52% under
O/U LINE 44
37% over63% under
O/U LINE 48
26% over74% under
O/U LINE 52
17% over83% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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Highest Graded Players

Season-to-date PFF grades for each team's top graded players, minimum 25% of that side's snaps.

MIA
Caleb DouglasWR
70.4
Ollie Gordon IIHB
70.0
Malik WashingtonWR
69.8
Aaron BrewerC
68.2
Will KacmarekTE
67.4
NYJ
Dylan ParhamG
88.7
Garrett WilsonWR
79.0
Joe TippmannG
76.9
Braelon AllenHB
73.5
Geno SmithQB
71.4

QB Matchup

Each team's real current starting QB (per PFF's own depth chart) -- season-to-date PFF grades and passing profile, ranked against the league's other starters. A stat reads “—” when that player has no recorded snaps for it yet this season (e.g. just back from injury).

MIAMalik Willis
VS
NYJGeno Smith
MIA
43.8
35th / 35
Overall Grade
NYJ
71.4
18th / 35
MIA
57.2
33rd / 35
Clean Pocket Grade
NYJ
80.0
19th / 35
MIA
32.2
30th / 35
Pressure Grade
NYJ
54.5
8th / 35
MIA
3.5%
20th / 35
Big Time Throw %
NYJ
4.2%
11th / 35
MIA
5.8%
33rd / 35
Turnover Worthy %
NYJ
1.8%
7th / 35
MIA
3.29s
34th / 35
Avg Time To Throw
NYJ
2.99s
21st / 35
MIA
10.4
2nd / 35
Avg Depth of Target
NYJ
7.5
25th / 35

Efficiency and Scoring

Season-to-date EPA, success rate, and scoring, with each figure's league rank.

Offense
MIANYJ
-0.0927th/32
EPA / Play
-0.0320th/32
-0.1428th/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.0618th/32
-0.0211th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.1525th/32
39.6%29th/32
Success Rate
45.5%14th/32
39.4%32nd/32
Success Rate (Passing)
49.3%15th/32
39.8%22nd/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
40.3%20th/32
14.031st/32
Points Per Game
18.627th/32
Defense
MIANYJ
+0.1128th/32
EPA / Play
-0.068th/32
+0.3231st/32
EPA / Play (Passing)
+0.0318th/32
-0.137th/32
EPA / Play (Rushing)
-0.183rd/32
49.3%28th/32
Success Rate
44.4%16th/32
57.6%32nd/32
Success Rate (Passing)
45.5%14th/32
40.1%13th/32
Success Rate (Rushing)
42.9%21st/32
26.424th/32
Points Per Game
19.25th/32

Pressure Matchup

Each team's O-line pressure allowed against the other team's pass rush generated.

When Miami Dolphins have the ball
MIA pressure allowed45.0%32nd of 32
→
NYJ pressure generated36.9%16th of 32
When New York Jets have the ball
NYJ pressure allowed35.6%16th of 32
→
MIA pressure generated32.3%26th of 32

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date PFF grades, side by side.

Grades ranked all 32 teams
MIA
54.5
32nd / 32
Overall
NYJ
74.5
16th / 32
MIA
54.0
32nd / 32
Offense
NYJ
70.2
19th / 32
MIA
58.2
29th / 32
Defense
NYJ
68.2
12th / 32
MIA
71.7
24th / 32
Special Teams
NYJ
90.1
6th / 32
MIA
43.2
31st / 32
Passing Offense
NYJ
71.0
14th / 32
MIA
60.9
28th / 32
Rushing Offense
NYJ
70.8
19th / 32
MIA
60.2
30th / 32
Receiving
NYJ
65.9
26th / 32
MIA
56.1
31st / 32
Offensive Line
NYJ
67.3
8th / 32
MIA
64.9
28th / 32
Pass Rush
NYJ
60.5
32nd / 32
MIA
48.1
27th / 32
Coverage
NYJ
84.4
1st / 32
MIA
61.2
16th / 32
Run Defense
NYJ
58.3
23rd / 32
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