New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Jets
3-10
8
VS
Buffalo Bills
10-4
35
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
43
Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
21%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
21%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 43.
O/U LINE 30
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 38.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 40
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 44
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
16% over84% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Negative means Buffalo Bills lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -11
Median: +11
P95: +32