Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots — Win Probability
FINAL
Miami Dolphins
7-5
10
VS
New England Patriots
10-4
38
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Patriots 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 28
COMBINED SCORE
48
Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
21%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 48.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 44
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 45.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
31% over69% under ✓
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