Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
3-6
12
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
2-10
14
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Las Vegas Raiders won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
26
Margin of Victory — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
66%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 26.
O/U LINE 30
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 34.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
10% over90% under ✓
Unlock Full Game Stats
Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
Sign Up Free