New England Patriots vs New York Jets — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
9-4
42
VS
New York Jets
3-9
10
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Patriots 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 32
COMBINED SCORE
52
Margin of Victory — New York Jets (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
81%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
6%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 52.
O/U LINE 30
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 40
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 48
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — New York Jets (Home)
Negative means New York Jets lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -33
Median: -11
P95: +10