Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals — Win Probability
FINAL
Arizona Cardinals
2-10
14
VS
Cincinnati Bengals
3-8
37
Market line: CIN -5.5, total 51.5 · Model expected score: Arizona Cardinals 23.0 – Cincinnati Bengals 28.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bengals 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Cincinnati Bengals won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
51
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Margin of Victory — Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
34%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 51.
O/U LINE 30
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 40
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 44
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 48
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 51.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
49% over51% under ✓
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